BOOK SHELF


Recommended reading for investors who are interested in boom and bust cycles


My book, The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle, provides a precise forecast as to where I think the market is headed based on historic market cycles that are demonstarted using the Dow Jones Industrial index. The cycle has worked for the last 100 years, surviving two world wars, the Great Depression, the UK and US coming off the gold standard. Why should it suddenly stop?
Excellent book for those who are new to cycles and an excellent starter for further research. Hirsch is editor of the Stock Market Alamanac which tracks seasonal cycles among numerous other market facts. Hirsch is well known for his historical research and insights into stock market cycles and repetitive seasonal patterns.


A great place to learn about how commodities impact the supply of goods and impact corporate profits.  Contains research demonstrating that regular ~17/18 year commodity cycles exists and that these mirror 17/18 year stock market cycles. A wealth of knowledge from a wealthy man.



Supercycles describes the long waves of boom and bust that undulate through the global economic and financial systems. The author argues that more often than not, they are the result of policymakers' well-intentioned but misguided attempts to achieve price stability. He states that a Supercycle is a series of booms, followed by busts, that begins with commodities and ends with services, a pipeline that runs from commodities to goods and services. An argument that is consistent with Jim Rogers commodity cycle.





The big daddy of predictive cycle books! I read this book back in 2006 and although Fred Harrison proves the existence of a 17/18 year business cycle which precedes the boom bust phenomenon that wreaks havoc with global markets, I couldn't quite believe that we would see what he was predicting.  Well I was wrong and the predictions contained in this book proved to be uncannily accurate. Harrison shows us that this has been happening for centuries and our governments are completely impotent.



How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 - Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the "Wall Street Journal" from either side of the market bottom. In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future.


The Great Super Cycle: Profit from the Coming Inflation Tidal Wave and Dollar Devaluation looks at what we can expect in global economics by looking at the history of political shifts in power. The underlying theme is that everything moves in cycles—from the mega-cycle of world powers, to economic cycles that can last decades, to mini-cycles that last ten to twenty years. According to author David Skarica, cycles are the most important and also the most powerful tool we have to make money in the coming years from the inevitable debt bubble and resulting economic shift. The market will move much lower in the coming years in inflation-adjusted terms. The key in this environment is to be invested in sectors that will outperform
The Big Short is a fast paced, entertaining thriller. It beggars belief that this is all true and that these financial titans were taking huge risks that they didn't understand or chose to ignore. This book provides a fascinating insight into the owrkings of the crazy world that caused the global financial crisis. A must read.


Harry Dent argues that demographic trends were the greatest drivers of the economy, along with radical new technologies, working together to follow a four-stage life cycle of innovation, growth, shakeout, and maturity. His theories are persuasive and elaborated in meticulous descriptions of historic economic trends and cycles. The book predicts that the worst of the housing downturn will occur between 2010 and 2013 and although we now know that the timing of these predictions is incorrect, the basis of Dent's theories still deserves consideration as part of wider cycle studies.



An incredible book (and incredibly expensive), this sheds light on the economic thinking following the Great Depsion. Schumpeter was a Harvard professor and did a great deal to further the study of cycles and Kondratieff's work in particular. This book is incredibly detailed but provides a comprehensive account of Schumpeter's theory that innovation drives successive business cycles which governemnts are powerless to stop.