Saturday, 23 July 2016

Short Term Cycle Update - 23rd July 2016

I’ve been very busy so there was no time for a June update, but this is perhaps a good thing and it gives me more time to look back and reflect on performance.
The first thing to note is about the +4 days shift, this is what I wrote in May:

I have decided that the +4 days shift that I mentioned months ago needs to be added permanently. The low came on 6th May and the end date of green =4 days is 19th May. I will add the extra 4 days and follow that instead.”

With the benefit of hindsight the 4 days shift doesn’t look permanent and shouldn’t be added in. I waited months before deciding to add it in but now I shall return to the original cycle.  The results in May used the original cycle, as do these ones, so there is no change there.

If the May cycle was disappointing, the June one was terrible. Luckily the July cycle more than made up for it.
The cycle has beaten the Dow Jones by 68% and the FTSE 100 by 124% since 29 September 2016!
I managed to exceed the 542 points available in July by going long at 4am on 24 June 2016 as the shock Brexit referendum results were coming in (I trade CFD futures which trade 24 hours a day).
I am very pleased with how the short term cycle has performed since I started trading with it in September 2016, but it still makes me nervous as there are no certainties with trading.