Saturday, 3 November 2012

The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

The 17.6 Year Stock Market cycle is a new book by Kerry Balenthiran that is being published by Harriman House on 25th February 2013. Click on the cover to view a PDF sample.

From the introduction:

"A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another.

The identification of a 17-18 year stock market cycle is nothing new, but I have discovered a stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years that I have extrapolated back over 100 years. I have called this cycle, rather modestly (and, after all, if has to be called something), the Balenthiran Cycle and that is the subject of this book."



Commodity Cycles
Business Cycles A Historical Perspective
Business Cycles A Modern Psychological Perspective
Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
  • Part I: Bull Market 1982 to 2000
  • Part II: Bear Market 1929 to 1947
  • Part III: Bull Market 1947 to 1965 and Bear Market 1965 to 1982
  • Part V: Bear Market 2000 to 2018
How to Trade the Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Order a copy here.

Art Cashin from UBS on CNBC

Art Cashin, Director of Floor operations at UBS Financial Services, talks about the 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle.  Art describes the cycle as being like the biblical story of the fat and lean years, from 1982 to 2000 there was a bull market and now we are in a bear market like the one from 1966 to 1982.  Art believes that the next bull market won't start until 2017.

The full interview is here:

Kerry Balenthiran on CNBC

Kerry Balenthrian, author of The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 was recently asked to join the hosts on CNBC Squawk Box to discuss the ongoing battle between bulls and bears.

Watch the video here:


Warren Buffett in FORTUNE Magazine

Let's start by defining "investing." The definition is simple but often forgotten: Investing is laying out money now to get more money back in the future--more money in real terms, after taking inflation into account.

Now, to get some historical perspective, let's look back at the 34 years before this one--and here we are going to see an almost Biblical kind of symmetry, in the sense of lean years and fat years--to observe what happened in the stock market. Take, to begin with, the first 17 years of the period, from the end of 1964 through 1981. Here's what took place in that interval:

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12 Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00

Now I'm known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move.
Full article is here.