Sy Harding's Stock Market Seasonal Timing Strategy Buy Signal!

Back in April I wrote a post (here) outlining Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy's buy and sell signals. Sy Harding’s buy and sell rules are as follows:

Buy Signal:

1. Buy on October 16th if MACD is bullish.

2. Wait for bullish MACD signal if MACD is not bullish on October 16th.  

Sell Signal:

1. Sell on April 20th if MACD is bearish
2. Wait for a bearish MACD signal if MACD is not bearish on April 20th.
So, 16th October 2016 has passed, and you can see below that the Dow Jones Industrial Average MACD has just turned positive. That means we got our buy signal on 19th October 2016.
 The DJIA closed at 18096.27 on 20th April 2016 and 18202.62, a gain of 0.6%. There will be some people who view this paltry gain as evidence of why this strategy is flawed. But had you sold and gone away, you would have avoided 6 months of equity risk and possibly made gains elsewhere.
This is a rare strategy that continues to work year after year despite most investors being well aware of it.

17.6 Week Stock Market Cycle Update - Low on 10 Jan 2017?

Above are the cycle dates. You can judge for yourself how good they are. The chart below might help...

One Year Equity Curve

This is my equity curve over the past year, rebased to a starting pot of £30k. The short term cycle has worked well and it has been a good year, up 93.6%.

Historic FTSE 100 Trailing Price Earnings (PE) Ratio

As I wrote about a number of years ago, obtaining historic pe ratio data for the FTSE 100 is not as easy as it is for the US indices. Therefore I have again had to pull together this information myself. I couldn't believe that the PE ratio was in the high 30s and wanted to know whether this was related to Brexit or existed prior to that.

From the graph below you can see that in January 2016 the FTSE was still on a reasonable PE ratio of 16.69. However this changed rapidly from February 2016. I am guessing that this relates to the asset right offs from the big miners at the start of the year.

You could argue that this one off effects needs to be striped out of the data and hence this is why the FTSE is trading on such a high trailing PE. I don't have access to forward PEs, plus it is hard to know how reasonable the earnings estimates are.

One way around this is to use the cyclically adjusted pe (CAPE) ratio, and the CAPE is at much more reasonable level of 13.2. I am hoping that updated earnings will bring this ratio down to more reasonable levels. However Brexit and the Bank of England's bazooka response seems to have supercharged the issue. Time will tell whether the market will correct or the PE ratio gradually reduces.

Short Term Cycle Update - 23rd July 2016

I’ve been very busy so there was no time for a June update, but this is perhaps a good thing and it gives me more time to look back and reflect on performance.
The first thing to note is about the +4 days shift, this is what I wrote in May:

I have decided that the +4 days shift that I mentioned months ago needs to be added permanently. The low came on 6th May and the end date of green =4 days is 19th May. I will add the extra 4 days and follow that instead.”

With the benefit of hindsight the 4 days shift doesn’t look permanent and shouldn’t be added in. I waited months before deciding to add it in but now I shall return to the original cycle.  The results in May used the original cycle, as do these ones, so there is no change there.

If the May cycle was disappointing, the June one was terrible. Luckily the July cycle more than made up for it.
The cycle has beaten the Dow Jones by 68% and the FTSE 100 by 124% since 29 September 2016!
I managed to exceed the 542 points available in July by going long at 4am on 24 June 2016 as the shock Brexit referendum results were coming in (I trade CFD futures which trade 24 hours a day).
I am very pleased with how the short term cycle has performed since I started trading with it in September 2016, but it still makes me nervous as there are no certainties with trading.